The Brier Index
The ETF coins

Seven coins, one model, one record

The coins with a US spot ETF. Each one gets the same forecast every day: how far the price could move by tomorrow, next week and next month, graded on its date. Not which way.

Forecast date Oct 27, 2026 · prices are the Binance close at 00:00 UTC · misses included.

CoinLast close28 daysBy Nov 3, 8 in 10 chanceVolatilityRecord
Bitcoin BTC $80,151 -4.0% $76,153–$84,358 Very calm 1 of 100 90% inside 30 graded
XRP XRP $1.3092 -12.5% $1.2044–$1.4231 Very calm 5 of 100 100% inside 3 graded
Ethereum ETH $2,325 -13.5% $2,178–$2,480 Very calm 2 of 100 80% inside 30 graded
Solana SOL $100.95 -15.1% $93.67–$108.80 Very calm 1 of 100 80% inside 30 graded
Litecoin LTC $56.81 -17.9% $51.69–$62.43 Very calm 9 of 100 100% inside 3 graded
Dogecoin DOGE $0.0778 -17.2% $0.0710–$0.0852 Very calm 11 of 100 100% inside 3 graded
Hedera HBAR $0.0774 -36.6% $0.0670–$0.0893 Turbulent 79 of 100 100% inside 3 graded

"28 days" is the price move over the last 28 days, a fact, not a reading. "Record" is how often the close landed inside the 80% range at 1 and 7 days, against a target of 80%; 30-day forecasts have not reached their dates yet. The trend rule was only tested on Bitcoin, so only Bitcoin shows it.

Why these seven: the model was tested on each coin's own history before it was published (Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana on Oct 7, 2026; XRP, Litecoin, Dogecoin and Hedera on Oct 24, 2026), with the same pass rule for all. A coin whose test fails does not get a page. How the index works.