ETH Oracle Index

Ethereum down 13.5% over 28 days · 7-day 80% range $2,178–$2,480

Forecast date Oct 27, 2026 · updated Oct 27, 2026 (UTC) · model M1 (EWMA volatility), version M1.0

Days without a forecast since the record began: Oct 10, 2026, Oct 11, 2026. The machine that runs the model was off; since Oct 24, 2026 the daily job runs the model itself if the morning run was missed. Gaps are shown, never filled in.

1 · 28-day trend

Ethereum is -13.54% over the last 28 days.

A fact about the price, not a reading of the index: the trend rule was only tested on Bitcoin, so it is only shown there. It says nothing about where the price goes next.

2 · Expected range

Where Ethereum is likely to close (Binance, 00:00 UTC) at each horizon. The center is today's price: this index says how wide the outcomes are, not which way they go.

A hundred ways the next 30 days could go

Each line is one path the model finds plausible. None of them is a prediction. The shaded bands hold 50% and 80% of where they end.

50% range 80% range 90% (5th–95th percentile). Center = today's price: the model makes no directional call.

Each path moves by a random percentage every day, sized so the paths end spread the way the model's 30-day range says. Price: Binance close, 00:00 UTC.

How far ahead	Closes on	5th	10th	25th	Median	75th	90th	95th
1 day	Oct 28, 2026	$2,252	$2,268	$2,295	$2,325	$2,355	$2,382	$2,399
7 days	Nov 3, 2026	$2,139	$2,178	$2,246	$2,325	$2,405	$2,480	$2,527
30 days	Nov 26, 2026	$1,956	$2,032	$2,166	$2,325	$2,495	$2,659	$2,762

How to read the columns: 9 times in 10 the close should land above the "10th" price, and 9 times in 10 below the "90th". Between those two is the 80% range quoted on the rest of the site; the median is the middle, which here is always the last close.

The same forecast as questions

The chance Ethereum closes above each level on each date. These are the model's chances, graded on the date with the Brier score below. Nothing here is a market: there is nothing to buy or sell.

Ethereum price on Oct 28, 2026?

Close at 00:00 UTC · 1 day out · from $2,325 on Oct 27

Above $2,557 +10% <1% chance
Above $2,441 +5% <1% chance
Above $2,208 −5% >99% chance
Above $2,092 −10% >99% chance

Ethereum price on Nov 3, 2026?

Close at 00:00 UTC · 7 days out · from $2,325 on Oct 27

Above $2,557 +10% 3.0% chance
Above $2,441 +5% 16.8% chance
Above $2,208 −5% 84.4% chance
Above $2,092 −10% 98.1% chance

Ethereum price on Nov 26, 2026?

Close at 00:00 UTC · 30 days out · from $2,325 on Oct 27

Above $2,557 +10% 18.2% chance
Above $2,441 +5% 32.1% chance
Above $2,208 −5% 68.8% chance
Above $2,092 −10% 84.3% chance

3 · Old forecasts don't disappear

On Oct 27, 2026 the index said: there is an 80% chance Ethereum closes between $2,032 and $2,659 on Nov 26, 2026. Today it is at $2,325, inside that range, with 30 days to go.

Tomorrow there will be a new forecast, but it does not erase this one. Every forecast stays here until its own date arrives. On that day we check the price: inside the range is a hit, outside is a miss, and both go to the scorecard below. The proof page shows each one was stamped into Bitcoin before its date (for Ethereum, since Oct 24, 2026).

Each fan is one day's forecast. The black line is the real price.

Every day the index draws a range for 30 days out. Here they all are, from the day each was made to the day it gets checked. The shaded one is the newest. If the black line ends inside a fan on that fan's last day, it was a hit.

The fans widen because the further ahead you look, the less anyone can know. They show how wide the outcomes are, not which way the price goes. Only the price on each forecast's last day is graded. The first one gets checked on Nov 6. Price: Binance, 00:00 UTC.

30-day forecasts still waiting for their date

Made on	Checked on	80% range	Today's price is	Days left
Oct 27	Nov 26	2,032–2,659	Inside	30
Oct 26	Nov 25	2,028–2,676	Inside	29
Oct 25	Nov 24	2,048–2,717	Inside	28
Oct 24	Nov 23	2,067–2,758	Inside	27
Oct 23	Nov 22	2,059–2,772	Inside	26
Oct 22	Nov 21	2,150–2,846	Inside	25
Oct 21	Nov 20	2,122–2,828	Inside	24
Oct 20	Nov 19	2,083–2,784	Inside	23
Oct 19	Nov 18	2,075–2,799	Inside	22
Oct 18	Nov 17	2,059–2,803	Inside	21
Oct 17	Nov 16	2,069–2,839	Inside	20
Oct 16	Nov 15	2,075–2,874	Inside	19
Oct 15	Nov 14	2,049–2,862	Inside	18
Oct 14	Nov 13	2,121–2,941	Inside	17
Oct 13	Nov 12	2,076–2,885	Inside	16
Oct 12	Nov 11	2,168–2,969	Inside	15
Oct 9	Nov 8	2,087–2,934	Inside	12
Oct 8	Nov 7	2,191–3,024	Inside	11
Oct 7	Nov 6	2,336–3,115	Outside, for now	10

Grey bar: the range that forecast gave. Black line: today's price ($2,325, Oct 27). Being outside today is not a miss yet: only the price on the "checked on" date counts.

7-day forecasts still waiting for their date

Made on	Checked on	80% range	Today's price is	Days left
Oct 27	Nov 3	2,178–2,480	Inside	7
Oct 26	Nov 2	2,179–2,491	Inside	6
Oct 25	Nov 1	2,203–2,525	Inside	5
Oct 24	Oct 31	2,227–2,560	Inside	4
Oct 23	Oct 30	2,224–2,567	Inside	3
Oct 22	Oct 29	2,312–2,647	Inside	2
Oct 21	Oct 28	2,285–2,625	Inside	1

Grey bar: the range that forecast gave. Black line: today's price ($2,325, Oct 27). Being outside today is not a miss yet: only the price on the "checked on" date counts.

4 · Scorecard

Skill vs. history

0.36

Our chances had 36% less error than chances taken only from Ethereum's history. 0 means no better than history, 1 means perfect. This is the skill score; the raw Brier scores are below.

48 probabilities from 12 forecasts at 7 days. Too few to judge: we want at least 90 forecasts. The four levels of one day share one outcome and 7-day forecasts overlap, so treat this as about 12 independent readings, not 48.

Each day the index publishes chances like "16.8% that Ethereum closes above $2,441 in 7 days". The Brier score is the average squared distance between that chance and what happened (1 if it closed above, 0 if not): 0 is perfect, lower is better. We compare it with the same score for a reader who only knows history: how often Ethereum has ended above that level over the same number of days in its history, counting only days before the forecast. The 1-day chances are left out: they are almost always near 0% or 100%, and would flatter the score.

Horizon	Probabilities graded	Brier, ours	Brier, history	Skill
7 days	48	0.048	0.075	0.36

Re-grading random subsets of the forecasts gives a range of 0.22 to 0.60. Treat it as too narrow while the record is short: forecasts made a day apart overlap and share the same market.

Do the chances mean what they say?

When we said	Cases	Average chance said	How often it happened
under 20%	15	8%	0%
20–40%	9	21%	0%
60–80%	5	79%	100%
80% or more	19	91%	90%

If the chances are honest, the last two columns match once there are enough cases.

Resolved questions

Question	We said	Resolved
Above $2,649 on Oct 27? made Oct 20	4.1%	No
Above $2,528 on Oct 27? made Oct 20	18.6%	No
Above $2,288 on Oct 27? made Oct 20	82.6%	Yes
Above $2,167 on Oct 27? made Oct 20	97.3%	Yes
Above $2,651 on Oct 26? made Oct 19	4.5%	No
Above $2,531 on Oct 26? made Oct 19	19.4%	No
Above $2,290 on Oct 26? made Oct 19	81.8%	Yes
Above $2,169 on Oct 26? made Oct 19	96.9%	Yes
Above $2,643 on Oct 25? made Oct 18	5.1%	No
Above $2,523 on Oct 25? made Oct 18	20.1%	No
Above $2,283 on Oct 25? made Oct 18	81.1%	Yes
Above $2,163 on Oct 25? made Oct 18	96.5%	Yes

The latest graded questions. A red row means the outcome went against the side our chance leaned to; that happens about as often as the chances say it should, if they are honest.

Ranges

Every forecast is written before the outcome is known and graded automatically against the Binance close. A well-calibrated 80% range should contain about 80% of outcomes. Small samples swing a lot; the counts are shown so you can judge.

Horizon	Graded	Inside 80% range	Inside 50% range	Average error
1 day	18	72% target 80%	61% target 50%	0.50%
7 days	12	92% target 80%	75% target 50%	0.96%
30 days	0	— target 80%	— target 50%	—

Average error is the pinball loss, the standard grade for percentile forecasts: it adds up how far the real close fell from each published percentile, as a share of the price. Lower is better.

Graded 1-day forecasts

Made on	Checked on	80% range	Price that day	Result
Oct 26	Oct 27	2,272–2,390	2,325	In
Oct 25	Oct 26	2,299–2,420	2,330	In
Oct 24	Oct 25	2,326–2,451	2,359	In
Oct 23	Oct 24	2,325–2,455	2,388	In
Oct 22	Oct 23	2,411–2,538	2,389	Miss
Oct 21	Oct 22	2,386–2,514	2,474	In
Oct 20	Oct 21	2,345–2,473	2,449	In
Oct 19	Oct 20	2,345–2,477	2,408	In
Oct 18	Oct 19	2,336–2,471	2,410	In
Oct 17	Oct 18	2,354–2,495	2,403	In

Graded 7-day forecasts

Made on	Checked on	80% range	Price that day	Result
Oct 20	Oct 27	2,245–2,583	2,325	In
Oct 19	Oct 26	2,242–2,591	2,330	In
Oct 18	Oct 25	2,230–2,589	2,359	In
Oct 17	Oct 24	2,245–2,616	2,388	In
Oct 16	Oct 23	2,257–2,642	2,389	In
Oct 15	Oct 22	2,234–2,625	2,474	In
Oct 14	Oct 21	2,308–2,703	2,449	In
Oct 13	Oct 20	2,260–2,650	2,408	In
Oct 12	Oct 19	2,351–2,737	2,410	In
Oct 9	Oct 16	2,279–2,687	2,442	In

Graded 30-day forecasts

No 30-day forecast has reached its date yet; the first one is checked on Nov 6, 2026. Until then you can follow them above.

The tables show the last ten graded forecasts per horizon; the counts above include all of them. We will not claim accuracy before roughly 90 days of record.

The models in the shadow

Four models run every day; M1 is the official one. The others are graded the same way and shown here so the comparison is public. One of them can replace M1 only by the rule in the methodology, never before Jan 15, 2027. M0 is the plain baseline: the last 30 days' realized volatility.

Horizon	Model	Graded	Inside 80% range	Average error
1 day	M0	18	72%	0.50%
1 day	M1 (official)	18	72%	0.50%
1 day	M2	18	78%	0.51%
1 day	M3	18	89%	0.49%
7 days	M0	12	92%	0.95%
7 days	M1 (official)	12	92%	0.96%
7 days	M2	12	100%	1.05%
7 days	M3	12	100%	1.01%

M0: volatility of the last 30 days. M1: exponentially weighted volatility (the official model). M2: the option market's implied volatility (Deribit DVOL; Bitcoin and Ethereum only). M3: the last year's actual moves, no distribution assumed. Full definitions and the test that chose M1 are on the backtest page.

5 · Volatility level

Volatility level

Over the last 30 days Ethereum's price has moved about 1.7% a day (33% annualised), calmer than 98% of days since September 2017. Level 2 of 100 means only 2% of days were calmer. It measures how much the price moves, not which way.

The level is the percentile of today's 30-day realized volatility (standard deviation of daily log returns, annualized) among all 3,328 days since 2017-09-16. 0 is the calmest month on record, 100 the most turbulent. It is a measurement, not a forecast: a calm month says nothing about which way the next move goes.

What this is — and isn't

The ETH Oracle Index is the daily output of a set of statistical models that are published before the outcome is known and graded publicly afterward, including misses. It does not predict whether Ethereum will go up or down: none of the return signals we tested held up out of sample, and this index makes no directional call. The expected range describes uncertainty, not a target. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and nothing is tailored to your situation. The author may hold crypto assets, including BTC.