Hedera down 36.6% over 28 days · 7-day 80% range $0.0670–$0.0893
1 · 28-day trend
Hedera is -36.62% over the last 28 days.
A fact about the price, not a reading of the index: the trend rule was only tested on Bitcoin, so it is only shown there. It says nothing about where the price goes next.
2 · Expected range
Where Hedera is likely to close (Binance, 00:00 UTC) at each horizon. The center is today's price: this index says how wide the outcomes are, not which way they go.
A hundred ways the next 30 days could go
Each line is one path the model finds plausible. None of them is a prediction. The shaded bands hold 50% and 80% of where they end.
| How far ahead | Closes on | 5th | 10th | 25th | Median | 75th | 90th | 95th |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Oct 28, 2026 | $0.0721 | $0.0733 | $0.0752 | $0.0774 | $0.0796 | $0.0817 | $0.0829 |
| 7 days | Nov 3, 2026 | $0.0643 | $0.0670 | $0.0717 | $0.0774 | $0.0834 | $0.0893 | $0.0931 |
| 30 days | Nov 26, 2026 | $0.0528 | $0.0574 | $0.0661 | $0.0774 | $0.0905 | $0.1042 | $0.1134 |
How to read the columns: 9 times in 10 the close should land above the "10th" price, and 9 times in 10 below the "90th". Between those two is the 80% range quoted on the rest of the site; the median is the middle, which here is always the last close.
The same forecast as questions
The chance Hedera closes above each level on each date. These are the model's chances, graded on the date with the Brier score below. Nothing here is a market: there is nothing to buy or sell.
Hedera price on Oct 28, 2026?
Close at 00:00 UTC · 1 day out · from $0.0774 on Oct 27
- Above $0.0851 +10% 1.2% chance
- Above $0.0812 +5% 12.5% chance
- Above $0.0735 −5% 88.6% chance
- Above $0.0696 −10% >99% chance
Hedera price on Nov 3, 2026?
Close at 00:00 UTC · 7 days out · from $0.0774 on Oct 27
- Above $0.0851 +10% 19.8% chance
- Above $0.0812 +5% 33.2% chance
- Above $0.0735 −5% 67.6% chance
- Above $0.0696 −10% 82.6% chance
Hedera price on Nov 26, 2026?
Close at 00:00 UTC · 30 days out · from $0.0774 on Oct 27
- Above $0.0851 +10% 34.1% chance
- Above $0.0812 +5% 41.7% chance
- Above $0.0735 −5% 58.7% chance
- Above $0.0696 −10% 67.5% chance
3 · Old forecasts don't disappear
On Oct 27, 2026 the index said: there is an 80% chance Hedera closes between $0.0574 and $0.1042 on Nov 26, 2026. Today it is at $0.0774, inside that range, with 30 days to go.
Tomorrow there will be a new forecast, but it does not erase this one. Every forecast stays here until its own date arrives. On that day we check the price: inside the range is a hit, outside is a miss, and both go to the scorecard below. The proof page shows each one was stamped into Bitcoin before its date (for Hedera, since Oct 24, 2026).
Each fan is one day's forecast. The black line is the real price.
Every day the index draws a range for 30 days out. Here they all are, from the day each was made to the day it gets checked. The shaded one is the newest. If the black line ends inside a fan on that fan's last day, it was a hit.
30-day forecasts still waiting for their date
| Made on | Checked on | 80% range | Range and today's price | Today's price is | Days left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27 | Nov 26 | 0.0574–0.1042 | Inside | 30 | |
| Oct 26 | Nov 25 | 0.0570–0.1054 | Inside | 29 | |
| Oct 25 | Nov 24 | 0.0567–0.1069 | Inside | 28 | |
| Oct 24 | Nov 23 | 0.0559–0.1074 | Inside | 27 |
Grey bar: the range that forecast gave. Black line: today's price ($0.0774, Oct 27). Being outside today is not a miss yet: only the price on the "checked on" date counts.
7-day forecasts still waiting for their date
| Made on | Checked on | 80% range | Range and today's price | Today's price is | Days left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27 | Nov 3 | 0.0670–0.0893 | Inside | 7 | |
| Oct 26 | Nov 2 | 0.0668–0.0899 | Inside | 6 | |
| Oct 25 | Nov 1 | 0.0668–0.0908 | Inside | 5 | |
| Oct 24 | Oct 31 | 0.0662–0.0907 | Inside | 4 |
Grey bar: the range that forecast gave. Black line: today's price ($0.0774, Oct 27). Being outside today is not a miss yet: only the price on the "checked on" date counts.
4 · Scorecard
Nothing graded yet. The first 7- and 30-day probabilities are graded when their dates arrive.
Resolved questions
The latest graded questions. A red row means the outcome went against the side our chance leaned to; that happens about as often as the chances say it should, if they are honest.
Ranges
Every forecast is written before the outcome is known and graded automatically against the Binance close. A well-calibrated 80% range should contain about 80% of outcomes. Small samples swing a lot; the counts are shown so you can judge.
| Horizon | Graded | Inside 80% range | Inside 50% range | Average error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 3 | 100% | 100% | 0.52% |
| 7 days | 0 | — | — | — |
| 30 days | 0 | — | — | — |
Average error is the pinball loss, the standard grade for percentile forecasts: it adds up how far the real close fell from each published percentile, as a share of the price. Lower is better.
Graded 1-day forecasts
| Made on | Checked on | 80% range | Price that day | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26 | Oct 27 | 0.0733–0.0820 | 0.0774 | In |
| Oct 25 | Oct 26 | 0.0735–0.0825 | 0.0775 | In |
| Oct 24 | Oct 25 | 0.0730–0.0822 | 0.0779 | In |
Graded 7-day forecasts
Graded 30-day forecasts
No 30-day forecast has reached its date yet; the first one is checked on Nov 23, 2026. Until then you can follow them above.
The tables show the last ten graded forecasts per horizon; the counts above include all of them. We will not claim accuracy before roughly 90 days of record.
The models in the shadow
Four models run every day; M1 is the official one. The others are graded the same way and shown here so the comparison is public. One of them can replace M1 only by the rule in the methodology, never before Jan 15, 2027. M0 is the plain baseline: the last 30 days' realized volatility.
| Horizon | Model | Graded | Inside 80% range | Average error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | M0 | 3 | 100% | 0.70% |
| 1 day | M1 (official) | 3 | 100% | 0.52% |
| 1 day | M3 | 3 | 100% | 0.34% |
M0: volatility of the last 30 days. M1: exponentially weighted volatility (the official model). M2: the option market's implied volatility (Deribit DVOL; Bitcoin and Ethereum only). M3: the last year's actual moves, no distribution assumed. Full definitions and the test that chose M1 are on the backtest page.
5 · Volatility level
The level is the percentile of today's 30-day realized volatility (standard deviation of daily log returns, annualized) among all 2,555 days since 2019-10-29. 0 is the calmest month on record, 100 the most turbulent. It is a measurement, not a forecast: a calm month says nothing about which way the next move goes.
Get the weekly recap, misses included: by RSS.
What this is — and isn't
The HBAR Oracle Index is the daily output of a set of statistical models that are published before the outcome is known and graded publicly afterward, including misses. It does not predict whether Hedera will go up or down: none of the return signals we tested held up out of sample, and this index makes no directional call. The expected range describes uncertainty, not a target. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and nothing is tailored to your situation. The author may hold crypto assets, including BTC.